Zarif Resignation: Review

The source of most of the committed crimes, especially the most outrageous ones, is not created in one night or in the moment as many people think to be the case, but in fact, the actual cause is due to an immense amount of mental torture and unexpressed emotions/feelings that have been packing together for relatively a long-time (depending on every individual).

Zarif did not resign out of sudden, indeed, it is known to the public that he had to ask for resignation at least a couple of times before but Zarif did not publicise them like the last on 26th February 2019.
As it was disclosed one day after the resignation, this time what had made Zarif upset is when he found out Syrian President, Bashar Assad, had arrived in Tehran and right now is meeting with the supreme leader, in a meeting where Qassem Soleimani is sitting at the foreign minister seat instead of Zarif.

Screenshot 2019-02-28 at 21.50.35
The Photos above from the Assad meeting with the supreme leader; as it can be seen, the third person starting from the front is Qassem Soleimani instead of  Zarif. Additionally, it can be seen that even Rouhani is not present in this meeting (the president usually sits next to the quest).

Zarif thought this is a way, the system is trying to say to him that he has lost the supreme leader support, Zarif took this personally, and in return, declared his resignation on the same night.

Zarif resignation made lots of noise in Iran and the region probably more than the Principlists also knows as Hardliners imagined probably because of Zarif amazingly firing speech at the Munich security conference a few days back.

 

Screenshot 2019-02-28 at 21.49.58

Nonetheless, the following day, the resignation, faced a huge backlash. Iranian Twitter users made “Zarif stay” hashtag, Most MP made an official request of him not resigning but more importantly, Qassem Soleimani, personally, made a statement praising Zarif service and further explained, due to highly tight security reasons, very few people knew about this trip. It was revealed that not even president Rouhani knew about the meeting and that General Soleimani was personally in the plane with Bashar Assad. This claim does seem legitimate president Assad was travelling alone with no other Syrian government officials.

 

Screenshot 2019-02-28 at 21.49.49
The photos above show the most recent Instagram post affiliated to the General Qassem Soleimani, in which he hugging foreign minister Javad Zarif.

The following day, president Assad invited Zarif to Syria and praised his amazing work against the common enemy.



Copyright © ImanPoli 2019. All rights reserved.

Tensions Mount All-Time High As Iran And India Planning To Hit Terrorists in Pakistan

Babak Taghavi tweets Iran has deployed some F-14 to #bandarabbas airbase (located on the south-eastern region in Iran) for preparation in case of Pakistan response to Iran retaliation to the recent deadly terrorist attack in Iran that killed 27 IRGC border guards.

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1097187194232623107
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1097187194232623107

Babak Taghavi is saying Iran has deployed some F-14 to #bandarabbas airbase for preparation in case of Pakistan response to Iran retaliation to the recent deadly terrorist incident in #Iran!

This man is very ignorant!

 

https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1097192296842444800
https://twitter.com/BabakTaghvaee/status/1097192296842444800

This is a nasty way to report this sort of situation. Doesn’t he understand that even if Iran retaliates by launching precision-guided missiles toward those terrorist camp, it is certainly not going to be without notifying the Pakistani side!

Iran actually has a very good and to some aspect deep relationship with Pakistan that goes back to the start of the 1970 revolution.

However, Pakistani authorities have informed Iran about the real difficulties they have on repressing these Wahhabi-extremists as these entities have lots of influence in Pakistan power structure in the way that Pakistani military cannot take any serious action…

It is not satisfactory but the Iranian side gets this very well for a long time now!

Let’s just say, both countries knew months in advance that terrorists operating at Iran-eastern border are preparing to destabilise eastern and south-eastern regions of Iran.

The recent offensive-like military exercises in Iran eastern region is not unrelated to that information. Pakistani side has never rejected Iran’s concerns indeed the very opposite.   Iran’s Army launches drill Involving 12000 troops to practice ‘offensive’ tactics

 

Screenshot 2019-02-18 at 02.28.17

(IRGC holds major drills On Persian Gulf region, debuts ‘offensive’ component)

Let’s be sure if Iran takes any military action it would be in coordination with the Pakistani counterpart.

But Babak Taghavi tweets will only trigger people of Pakistan to feel they have to defend their nation against foreign aggression,

Screenshot 2019-02-18 at 02.16.24

A user from Pakistan reacted to Babak Taghavi tweet.

And this puts pressure on the Pakistani side to respond even if they don’t want to, which, really increases the likelihood of extreme escalation.

Babak is against the Iranian establishment but does this justify endangering his country because he hates the government?!

Ebrahim Raisi As The Future Supreme Leader Of Iran

There are three possible candidates, Ebrahim Raisi (kind of close to IRGC and the House of leadership, Hassan Rouhani (affiliated with Hashemi’s family and reformist party) and Sadegh Larijani (the head of the Larijani’s family).

Ebrahim Raisi

(The image shows Ebrahim Raisi, the head of Astan Quds Razavi and a member of Assembly of Experts)

Ebrahim Raisi seems to be the candidate of choice ( presidency and leadership) for both IRGC and The House of leadership. In 2017 presidential election in Iran he lost to Rouhani but managed to get more than 900k votes in Tehran (!) and more than 15 million votes in total, which is not bad at all considering Iran had no president that runs only one term.

Here is why I think Raisi is the one even though he has not been involved in any significant political position, like Khamenei….

(The Image Above shows Ebrahim Raisi in Lebanese border with Israel)

One event made many really convinced, that Ebrahim Raisi would be the future supreme leader and that event is when Ebrahim Raisi visited Syria and Lebanon (at the end of January 2018) and met with many very high ranking Hezbollah commanders and religious figures (Sunni and Shia) near the Israeli -Lebonan border… in the politics of Shia Islam, this is called Oath of allegiance or [بیعت] in Farsi. He was sent there (probably by the supreme leader request) to ensure Iranian allies that he will be the real commander in chief in the future in Iran so to avoid any confusion.

(The image above is Ebrahim Raisi either in Lebonan or Syria but most likely Lebonan)

I think this event alone, proves that Ebrahim Raisi, in fact, will be the future leader in Iran. There might be a joined- attempts by others to grab this position but it is very unlikely that they can handle IRGC in any sustainable approach.

2) Hassan Rouhani

(The image above shows president Hassan Rouhani)

What they (IRGC + Leadership) are now having in mind is how to prevent the political party that is connected to Hashemi family to have any say in the future, because, this party has time and time again sent signals that pointed their rejection to some of the main ideas of the 1979 revolution ( Hashemi family means the entire of Rouhanis’s cabinet, all the reformists and some portion of the ministry of intelligence). This party and candidate has some advantages to all the other candidates and that is his popularity amongst the younger generation.

3) Sadegh Larijani

(The image above shows Sadegh Larijani)

Both IRGC and house of leadership but more IRGC don’t trust the Larijani’s family, who are in charge of parliament, the head of the judiciary, Chairman of Expediency Discernment Council and a member of the assembly of experts. But he (Sadegh Larijani) is a tough one to cross-over since he has all the requirements on paper to become the supreme leader. However, he is extremely unpopular amongst the people and IRGC in particular!

I’m kinda sure they don’t allow Larijani or Rouhani to become the future supreme leader because the pro-Islamic revolutionaries (by that I mean the ordinary people who strongly support the current supreme leader) will not be loyal to either of them. larijani is deeply hated by Ahmadinejad followers (who are also loyal to the supreme leader) and Rouhani is known as in the most critical terms you could find amongst the pro-revolutionaries.

I think Raisi’s last year visit to Syria and Lebonan proves that he, in fact, will be the future leader in Iran. There might be a joined- attempts by others to grab this position but it is very unlikely that they can handle IRGC in any sustainable way.


*Please have in mind, these are all just opinions and interpretations based on my grasp of news and events, certainly, I do not claim to know the absolute truth. These may very well be all untrue and inaccurate!*

Why reconciliation between states like Iran and Israel is unlikely to take place?

One side has to retreat much more than other the side for reconciliation in such a level to take place.

Usually, countries make such reconciliation if one side is clearly on the back foot. Either in a post-war time when one side has already been defeated (e.g., Nazis after WWII, Japanese after WWII or Germany after WWI) or it is in an even a worse situation than post-war as the result of other means of warlike sanctions thus have no choice but to reconcile (reconciliation from the point of weakness) with their enemy.

Human beings have shown to do not reconcile in such matters. Well, they do reconcile but mostly when they are kids in their play; it is very uncommon at international relation level for hostile countries to make any reconciliation. Once a nation perused a long-term fundamental policy, it becomes really challenging and even impossible to make any reconciliation. For example, Russia and the US were, are and will be forever enemies; the US wants to control Russia and Russia wants to bring the US down and climb up itself. Unfortunately, these policies are natural because they are rooted from the nature of human beings and how they view power and its relation to survival, which, counts as the most important thing in the human mind.

Series of historical events prior to 1979 had made the Iranian nation very sceptical and deceitful to the west (at that time), which lead to the 1979 Islamic revolution. Khomeini was a leader. He got millions of supporters by acknowledging everything that Iranian hated about Shah and also introduced his view of political Shi’ism to the revolution (Shi’ism is one of two branches of Islam practised mainly in Iran)The issue of Palestine was the most important aspect of his political ideology, in term of the foreign policy.

(Iranian policy toward Israel has also to do with the fact that Iranian are the minority in the Islamic world and their region)

Ever since then, Iran has made the decision to oppose Israel. And they have invested and sacrificed to the extent that they cannot really go back. As long as nothing fundamentally changes, Iran will oppose Israel. Israel will also oppose all countries that are as large as Iraq.

Iran and its regional allies along with Russia have just passed through the hardest period of wars in Syria (Jihadists, the emerge of ISIS and regime change) and Iraq (ISIS) successfully, despite all odds. There is no reason for Iran to make any meaningful reconciliation with Israel. And like always. Israel is not considering such matters.

In Iranian perspective, in the best-case scenario, just like the post-Afghanistan invasion when Iran and west held serious talks about nuclear and other issues, I assume Iran would be willing to fully seize its nuclear enrichment (perhaps for 10 years) and make Hezbollah less militaristic In return for giving Palestinian the rights to VOTE and have their own state (two-state solution) and the ease of sanction. But Israel (the US) rejected the best scenario at that time and I think they will do the same now even though Iran is very unlikely to make that much of reconciliation that it did when it had US troops on its borders occupying one country after another.

What are the implications of the US reimposing all the Iran nuclear deal-related sanctions?

It’s dangerous. Soon we will realise how truly effective these sanctions are going to be.

Iran has already started using its own huge oil tankers to import its oil to the Asian buyers. This method is already very difficult and dangerous for Iran but Iran is willing to peruse it but in any case, if the US managed to plot those secret shipping routes that Iran uses to ship its oil to prevent Iran’s costumers then Iran might feel too isolated and decides it needs to fight to survive.

If the European Union fail to implement their little plan to continue their businesses in Iran, meaning they stop buying Iranian oil and the flow of dollar and Euro stops from Europe then it is very likely that Iran decides to resume its uranium enrichment like before. This is the tricky part and Israel indeed wants this. Iran knows that Israel would want that because then they can pressure Trump to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities and that’s why Iran is not very keen to resume its program now. Despite this, they would likely to do it if they feel they are not getting anything back from staying in the deal.

 

In another perspective, Iran would actually welcome resuming their program and even making other crafty acts if things inside the country become unstable. Many experts, expect things in Iran gets unstable but not necessarily because of sanctions, but through the outsiders within the system in Iran. I don’t say through sanctions because the government has prepared enough cash to inject in the streets and control it for the short-term after these sanctions but if certain entities within the government try to make mayhem then there is little the system can do. So if the situation gets too out of control then the system would definitely welcome a war-type conflict.

The following 5 months is the period of uncertainty thus dangerous.

 

How influential were Iranian Azerbaijanis in the Iran-Iraq war?

The highest number of martyrs were from Isfahan and Tehran provinces. The second highest was from Iranian Azerbaijanis along with Mazandaran and Khuzestan (where Ahvaz is located) provinces.

Iran-Iraq war like most other wars had a number of geniuses in term of the science of military; those who changed the equation of power when they entered the frontline. 2 out of 13 known figures who indeed lost their lives in that war were of Iranian Azeri background.

Mehdi Bakeri was the commander of the most or the second most important battle during Iran-Iraq war and many other major battles. He was known for his bravery and fighting tirelessly. He is a known war hero.

(The picture above shows Mehdi Bakeri )

Javad Fakoori was the most influential commanders of Iranian airforce. He was the one who designed the 2 of the most important airstrike missions during the war; Operation Kaman 99 and H-3 airstrike. Kaman 99 destroyed half of the Ba’athist airforce on the second day of war and H-3 (he was involved in that mission) was perhaps the most sophisticated operation by Iranian airforce that attacked the only air base Saddam thought Iran would never be able to attack.

(The picture above shows Javad Fakoori)