Is It All Because of Iran aggressiveness Or Our Arrogance?

Iran is not aggressive but being independent and free (in term of foreign policy making) is usually perceived by few who fear the rise of a competitor as being “aggressive”.

https://youtu.be/lm03YaqYxUA

(Mohammad Javad Zarif, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, responded to US warnings to sink Iranian speedboats)

Every action that various countries have taken in western Asia obviously has produced some reactions by the states located in that region.

>> The absurd approach of forcing the creation of the state of Israel literally changed the fate entire of the region and world. The 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran was massively influenced by the conflict between Palestine and Israel. IN my opinion, if it wasn’t for the issue of Palestine, Khomeini wouldn’t have had enough determination and enthusiasm to become the leader of the revolution.

>> All the blood and controversies of the 1979 revolution in Iran rooted in the US, the British and the Soviets rootless policies since the WWI with respect to Iran.

On Missile

But these days Iran is accused of being aggressive only because it has resisted foreign countries attacks. it is quite remarkable to my eyes when the US and its allies call Iran aggressive for developing missile technology as the only means of its defence while at the same time selling hundreds of billions worth of state of the art missile to Iran neighbours! This doesn’t make sense anywhere in the globe. India made nukes because China got nukes, and Pakistan got nukes because India got nukes. This is how it works. Everywhere. For example, NATO violated the treaty and installed many Air Defence System batteries surrounding Russia (taking away their strike capability) and Russia in return made Supersonic cruise missile that can bypass those air defences easily. Therefore, if the US help Israel by money and resources to build whatever kind of weapons (F35, iron dome, Tanks Nuclear Bombs Uranium etc) that they need or sells hundreds of billion dollars military equipment to Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states countries, then we all should expect the most influential country (arguably) in that region to get worried and feels the need to acquire some form of deterrence to avoid being inavded like in 1980 by US/Soviet/EU backed Saddam.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yweu-sOGQGw

(Javad Zarif gave the most precise and concise answer with regards to the missile)

Afghanistan and Iraq

When the US decided to occupy two of Iran neighbouring countries, Iran offers help to avoid what everyone had in mind (US war with Iran). The US accepted Iran help in toppling Taliban in Afghanistan and that is why the primary operation went very smooth but when it came to Iraq, Bush rejected Iran offer and instead called Iran axis of evil. In other words, Iran thought they might be next soon or later if the US forces remain in Iraq in mass. Many in the US main think-tank like Hudson institute hate Iran for helping Iraqi militias push the US occupying forces out of their country, which means the some in the US are angry on why you fought back when we popped all over your country and dropped some more uranium depleted bombs on your children as a memorial! This is really unbelievable the level of arrogance!

ISIS

They themselves replaced the Suni Saddam who was a CIA stooge, with a new system that happened to be run by the Shia prime minister after the elections! Then under the US supervision, ISIS is created and kept growing but they somehow dare to accuse Iran once again for that!

Why Iran somehow was in Iraq?!

As ISIS, advanced 30 km to Iranians border and the US simply rejected an emergency call for help from the Iraqi government on ISIS offensives to Baghdad and Erbil, Iran received two calls one from Kurdish authorities and one from Baghdad, demanding immediate support and Iran without saying anything further deployed heavy military equipment plus several hundred special forces in one night which repelled the ISIS offensives. Is it Iran being aggressive here?!

Syria

The only reason why Iran has some presence in Syria is due to the fact that the US and its allies created a Jihadist production factory in that country.

>> US/ allies made a systematic effort to find every psychopath, criminal and terrorists from all over the globe (Chechnya, southern Russia, eastern Asia, Saudi Arabia etc) and deployed them to Syria from the northern border with Turkey where Erdogan-ISIS dirty oil trade was going on and from southern Syria, through Jordan and also from the Israel occupying Golan Heights. Iran with so much suffering managed to keep them in line until Russia provided airpower to stop that cancer before it was too late! They did everyone a favour, especially the European!

Iran is not aggressive, in fact, Iran has been entirely pretty defensive but effective and firm on its moves (because it’s defensive simply wanting to survive) whereas other parties just made reckless policies as if its a game, because it is a game for them when you’re defending your existence, your entire being, you’re more likely to be effective and determined, whereas imperial kind of policies are superfluous and lack determination.

Are The Secondary Sanctions On Iran a Good Idea?

In order to determine whether it’s a good idea or not, we have to see whether it helps to achieve the goals of US and its allies.

The ultimate goal of the US and its allies is to simply topple the Iranian establishment in the way that Iran wouldn’t be able to come back at the international scene anytime soon. Many people say it’s also to restrain Iran from expanding its influence throughout the region and beyond.

Sanctions are not going to bring down the establishment simply because they are ineffective. They are ineffective because number of countries like China, Russia, Turkey and India are not going to abide by the set of rules that the US unilateral issued, also, because Iran is not the type of country that could be defeated by only sanctions what this means is that Iran is an independent state that can provide many of its essential needs like food and medicine. These type of sanctions will work on smaller countries that can be squeezed not Iran and definitely not Russia or China.

But why is that a bad Idea especially in the case of Iran? What the US feared the most about Iran is called Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC. IRGC was one of the main element that was responsible to pass through the 2012-2015 Obama sanctions by finding alternative ways. Now guess what, IRGC gets more experience and finds more connections globally when they’re ordered to find ways around sanctions, they become more powerful by having more responsibilities. So this is a classic example of unintended consequences or blowbacks in politics and international relation.

Soviet Union collapsed not because of economic hardship (although it had its effect) but when Soviet Union last leader Mikhail Gorbachev thought west was his friend and officially invited its enemy to his house. Pretending to be the friend of Iran is the most effective way to topple their establishment. So, the Iran deal was not achieved because Obama loved Iran but because he thought this strategy is more likely to work than others.

Why Iran appears so confident when it comes to confront the US and its allies?

They are confident because they have been defeating the US in the middle east non-stop ever since 9/11.

  • Removing the influence of the US (NATO) in the middle east has been one of the main objectives of Iran because, in their thinking, Iran needs to acquire enough security apparatus in its region that guarantees their long-term survival before the country can focus on internal matters. And of course, they see no security when hostile forces ( NATO) are in the offensive posture right on their border*.

*This was the lesson Iran learned in WW2 when the country was occupied by Soviet and British quite easily even though they were neutral because the leader of modern Iran, Reza Pahlavi, was so focused to build universities and other infrastructures that he forgot to build an independent national security and intelligence system that could actually protect the country. Iranian armed forces were not independent, they were controlled by western entities from the very core.*

  • The US spent several trillion dollars in Iraq and some more in Afghanistan but they have almost no influence in these countries now, unlike Iran which has spent much much less but has much much more influence** (not even comparable).
  • The US is almost begging the Taliban to talk with them and in Iraq, the US has been trying to find the best way to get the F**k out as quickly as possible.

Trump once threatened Iranian president in full cap letters of kind of war that few countries have experienced throughout history, Iranians read that as nuclear strike and occupation thread.

The commander of Quds force ( the most feared branch of IRGC) said in response, that the US in the case of Afghanistan invasion, couldn’t even handle the Taliban, which, according to him is a very amateurish organisation in compare to the ocean of Iranian armed forces, he further added, “so what do you think its gonna happen if you go war with us (Iran)!?

 

His point was that if the US couldn’t handle a small but independent militias that have their own politics as small as Taliban and indeed wants to seat on a table with them as the way of accepting them, then what would they face if they go against Iranian armed forces that consist of IRGC ( which include Quds force+ Hezbollah that has over 100k missiles and their own intelligence network and the most trained fighters arguably in the world after the sophisticated Syrian war experiences and defeating IDF in 2006 + Houthis + the entire of the axis of resistance in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan throughout the middle east), local Basij militias (over 2 million politically motivated members with limited military training in Iran), Iranian national army (over 500K forces, independent from IRGC) and Iranian intelligence forces and cyber army ( with over 30K members just In middle eastern countries and unknown number of highly sophisticated agents mainly in southern American countries, the US and of course western European countries like Deutschland, Austria, The UK, France, Denmark, Switzerland and surprisingly even Sweden!).

 

  • The US and its allies said “Assad MUST GO” and did everything in their power to achieve that but Iran somehow prevailed and now the US still cannot believe this humiliating defeat ( Just today it was reported that the US is slowly removing its mercenaries from Northern East of Syria ).
  • The US has done everything so that the Saudi royal family would be able to crush the Houthis, at least! But that has also, failed. Iran didn’t even want to get involved in Yemen, they spent very little treasure there but Houthis wanted Iranian support. The US has even lost its own elite troops ( the highly valuable fighters like Green Berets!) in Yemen but Houthis have now become even stronger than they used to be. They can take down the largest oil refinery in the world (Aramco) in the southern East of Saudi Arabia in a matter of seconds and send the European countries economy into recession and the US into deep trouble or perhaps block the Bab-el-Mandeb strait which is even more important than Strait of Hormuz since it connects the west and east, literally!

Indeed, a couple of days after Qassem Soleimnai warned Trump after Trump’s tweet, Houthis destroyed the most expensive Saudi naval destroyer in Bab-el-Mandeb with Iranian anti-ship Ballistic missiles and also targeted a large Saudi oil tanker that was passing the strait. This didn’t get into news much, but the situation was extremely tense since Iranian commanders took Trump full cap tweet personal and perhaps even serious.

Underground sources, reported that Iranian submarines were lined-up very close to Yemenis coast and the strategic port of Hodeidah, were Saudi-lead coalitions were trying to seize at that time. The reaction by the Saudi and the US army was so calm with regards to Iran approach that proved to Iranian the threat of war by Trump was not something leaders say before starting a war and that’s how the strait of Bab-el-Mandeb was reopened!

Do you know how much leverage these provide?!

For Iran, these matters mean the defeat of the US not the actual occupying.


**Iran doesn’t have as much influence in Afghanistan after Taliban massacred over dozen Iranian diplomats before the US invasion, but still Iran has much more influence (especially intelligence) in Afghanistan than the US, because Iran at least got many friends and followers amongst the Shia and Persian backgrounds in Afghanistan where majority of people speak Persian like the Iranians, but the US is hated by all due to the invasion and years of bombardments.**

Will Trump issue more waivers on Iran oil sanctions after the threat from Riyadh?

Certainly not officially, but the US is seriously considering waivers on Iranian oil sanctions.

This even more likely now that war of words of started between Trump and Saudi officials because of oil prices and the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey.

A couple of days ago, Trump said he might put sanctions on Saudi Arabia if the allegation of Saudi involvement in the murder Mr Khashoggi was true.

Now today, Mohammed Bin Salman, the crown prince, has hit back and said, if the US imposes a sanction on his country, he will increase the price of oil to up to 200 dollars per barrel.

All these means that Trump cannot rely on Saudi Arabia to fill the market after the loss of Iranian oil, and indeed the very opposite is happening, therefore it is more likely that more waivers are issued to keep some Iranian oil in the market, for now, this year at least!

Also, I don’t see how the crown prince can have a normal relation with Trump after this threat against Washington with regards to increasing oil prices! Trump likely to have taken to this personally.