QuickRead- What is a main goal of Iran’s market reform plans?

There is no market reform plan, It’s rather the control over the market.

The real economic reform that the Iranian government is pursuing is the reform of the entire of the banking system of the country. In this plan, they will have to close-down many banks I believe except the main few central banks and this is gonna make lots of noise which is why they are cautious is starting this plan. Another goal of this reform is to stop or at least decrease the interest rate considerably.

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Iran’s Banking Reform Prospects Look Brighter

But, considering the recent events, “market reform” could be interpreted as the use of force (such as capital punishment) to prevent certain super-wealthy individuals and groups to manipulate the market for their own benefit.

So far, I should say they have been quite successful since the market is kind of stable even when the last round of sanctions was reimposed on 6 November. They are engineering the market so that it would never experience another huge decline. And when the effects of sanctions are too large to stop, they make sure these effects hit the market one at a time and not all at once that could cause protests and public outrage. They even managed to decrease the price of the dollar and increase the value of the national currency.

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‘Sultan of Coins’ executed in Iran

Will Trump order the strike on Iranian nuclear sites if Iran resumes its nuclear activities?

George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for whatever reasons, did not attack Iranian nuclear sites.

George W. Bush and Iran

During Bush presidency, the US had over 250 K troops plus thousands of logistics surrounding Iran when International atomic energy agency (IAEA) found out about Natanz and Fordow nuclear sites, which were located deep in the mountains. Also, once Bush rejected Iran’s offer to fully halt its enrichment by calling Iran the axis of evil, Iran also rejected IAEA inspectors. One would say, things could not be any better for the US to attack Iran. Despite all that, the US and Israel did not attack Iran.Barack Obama and Iran

Barack Obama and Iran

When Obama was in office, Iran was preoccupied in Syria and was dealing with sanctions for the first time to that level. The US had plenty of time to attack Iran at the first round of Obama presidency but they still didn’t although they knew Iran was improving significantly in making advance centrifuges. That was the last good chance for the US to strike Iran, but they did not attack Iran even though Iran had enough enriched uranium to make at least 8 nuclear bombs according to Javad Zarif in an interview with Charlie Rose in 2015.

Now in 2018, the geopolitics of the middle east is different. Iran has huge influence throughout the middle east and beyond. It is no longer Iran that is surrounded by the US and its allies but rather Iran and its friends that have surrounded the US and its allies. The US and its allies are very vulnerable to Iran. If the US did not attack Iran then, it is very hard to imagine that they attack Iran now. Iran also has something that they almost never had and that is international support. This means It’s very hard for the US to create a coalition against Iran in the case of Iraq-like invasion.

On the military point of view

The US military strategists can plan the attack on nuclear sites fairly easily considering the capabilities of US air-force. But the real issue that they worry is their next move when Iran targeted their forces throughout the region with their ballistic missiles, which some of them has shown to have 100% accuracy or when hundreds of their troops were prisoned in Iraq and etc. Is the US ready to organise 250k troops to wage a full-scale war on Iran?! Is Trump ready to destroy his presidency by waging another unnecessary war in the middle east?!

A sensible mind would see these points, but the current US administration has not really acted based on logic and reasons and this is why some analysts fear that if Iran resumes its nuclear activities like before it is highly likely that Trump would start a war. However, to call the current administration of the US simply unreasonable to make a specific assumption that could predict the future is unwise. Waging a war is a very different kind of unreasonableness than exiting the nuclear deal or not believing on global warming. To start a war on Iran means the US has to spend an enormous amount of resources, it means a damage to the economy, something that Trump as a businessman is really trying to avoid. Trump doesn’t even want the troops to stay in Syria and wants them back. Trump has always complained about the meaningless wars in the middle east.

In a perfect conversation between Trump and Pentagon regarding the attack on Iran nuclear sites, Trump is very unlikely to order the strike in my opinion since Pentagon has shown to be quite sincere by not letting politics to get involved in their work. The only way, the US and Iran might collide is if “USS Liberty incident” repeats in one form or another. This scenario, unfortunately, is quite likely since people like John Bolton, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Pompeo are the ears of the President.

Iran has not made any effort to avoid the restriction it accepted under the joint comprehensive plan of action or JCPOA, unlike the common belief. Although the predominant explanation implies that the EU is the reason why Iran has stayed in the deal, it is fair to think that the “USS liberty incident type scenario” and other types of miscalculations is partly why the Iranian government has not rushed into enriching uranium like before the deal was signed.

Are The Secondary Sanctions On Iran a Good Idea?

In order to determine whether it’s a good idea or not, we have to see whether it helps to achieve the goals of US and its allies.

The ultimate goal of the US and its allies is to simply topple the Iranian establishment in the way that Iran wouldn’t be able to come back at the international scene anytime soon. Many people say it’s also to restrain Iran from expanding its influence throughout the region and beyond.

Sanctions are not going to bring down the establishment simply because they are ineffective. They are ineffective because number of countries like China, Russia, Turkey and India are not going to abide by the set of rules that the US unilateral issued, also, because Iran is not the type of country that could be defeated by only sanctions what this means is that Iran is an independent state that can provide many of its essential needs like food and medicine. These type of sanctions will work on smaller countries that can be squeezed not Iran and definitely not Russia or China.

But why is that a bad Idea especially in the case of Iran? What the US feared the most about Iran is called Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC. IRGC was one of the main element that was responsible to pass through the 2012-2015 Obama sanctions by finding alternative ways. Now guess what, IRGC gets more experience and finds more connections globally when they’re ordered to find ways around sanctions, they become more powerful by having more responsibilities. So this is a classic example of unintended consequences or blowbacks in politics and international relation.

Soviet Union collapsed not because of economic hardship (although it had its effect) but when Soviet Union last leader Mikhail Gorbachev thought west was his friend and officially invited its enemy to his house. Pretending to be the friend of Iran is the most effective way to topple their establishment. So, the Iran deal was not achieved because Obama loved Iran but because he thought this strategy is more likely to work than others.

What are the implications of the US reimposing all the Iran nuclear deal-related sanctions?

It’s dangerous. Soon we will realise how truly effective these sanctions are going to be.

Iran has already started using its own huge oil tankers to import its oil to the Asian buyers. This method is already very difficult and dangerous for Iran but Iran is willing to peruse it but in any case, if the US managed to plot those secret shipping routes that Iran uses to ship its oil to prevent Iran’s costumers then Iran might feel too isolated and decides it needs to fight to survive.

If the European Union fail to implement their little plan to continue their businesses in Iran, meaning they stop buying Iranian oil and the flow of dollar and Euro stops from Europe then it is very likely that Iran decides to resume its uranium enrichment like before. This is the tricky part and Israel indeed wants this. Iran knows that Israel would want that because then they can pressure Trump to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities and that’s why Iran is not very keen to resume its program now. Despite this, they would likely to do it if they feel they are not getting anything back from staying in the deal.

 

In another perspective, Iran would actually welcome resuming their program and even making other crafty acts if things inside the country become unstable. Many experts, expect things in Iran gets unstable but not necessarily because of sanctions, but through the outsiders within the system in Iran. I don’t say through sanctions because the government has prepared enough cash to inject in the streets and control it for the short-term after these sanctions but if certain entities within the government try to make mayhem then there is little the system can do. So if the situation gets too out of control then the system would definitely welcome a war-type conflict.

The following 5 months is the period of uncertainty thus dangerous.

 

Why Iran appears so confident when it comes to confront the US and its allies?

They are confident because they have been defeating the US in the middle east non-stop ever since 9/11.

  • Removing the influence of the US (NATO) in the middle east has been one of the main objectives of Iran because, in their thinking, Iran needs to acquire enough security apparatus in its region that guarantees their long-term survival before the country can focus on internal matters. And of course, they see no security when hostile forces ( NATO) are in the offensive posture right on their border*.

*This was the lesson Iran learned in WW2 when the country was occupied by Soviet and British quite easily even though they were neutral because the leader of modern Iran, Reza Pahlavi, was so focused to build universities and other infrastructures that he forgot to build an independent national security and intelligence system that could actually protect the country. Iranian armed forces were not independent, they were controlled by western entities from the very core.*

  • The US spent several trillion dollars in Iraq and some more in Afghanistan but they have almost no influence in these countries now, unlike Iran which has spent much much less but has much much more influence** (not even comparable).
  • The US is almost begging the Taliban to talk with them and in Iraq, the US has been trying to find the best way to get the F**k out as quickly as possible.

Trump once threatened Iranian president in full cap letters of kind of war that few countries have experienced throughout history, Iranians read that as nuclear strike and occupation thread.

The commander of Quds force ( the most feared branch of IRGC) said in response, that the US in the case of Afghanistan invasion, couldn’t even handle the Taliban, which, according to him is a very amateurish organisation in compare to the ocean of Iranian armed forces, he further added, “so what do you think its gonna happen if you go war with us (Iran)!?

 

His point was that if the US couldn’t handle a small but independent militias that have their own politics as small as Taliban and indeed wants to seat on a table with them as the way of accepting them, then what would they face if they go against Iranian armed forces that consist of IRGC ( which include Quds force+ Hezbollah that has over 100k missiles and their own intelligence network and the most trained fighters arguably in the world after the sophisticated Syrian war experiences and defeating IDF in 2006 + Houthis + the entire of the axis of resistance in Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan throughout the middle east), local Basij militias (over 2 million politically motivated members with limited military training in Iran), Iranian national army (over 500K forces, independent from IRGC) and Iranian intelligence forces and cyber army ( with over 30K members just In middle eastern countries and unknown number of highly sophisticated agents mainly in southern American countries, the US and of course western European countries like Deutschland, Austria, The UK, France, Denmark, Switzerland and surprisingly even Sweden!).

 

  • The US and its allies said “Assad MUST GO” and did everything in their power to achieve that but Iran somehow prevailed and now the US still cannot believe this humiliating defeat ( Just today it was reported that the US is slowly removing its mercenaries from Northern East of Syria ).
  • The US has done everything so that the Saudi royal family would be able to crush the Houthis, at least! But that has also, failed. Iran didn’t even want to get involved in Yemen, they spent very little treasure there but Houthis wanted Iranian support. The US has even lost its own elite troops ( the highly valuable fighters like Green Berets!) in Yemen but Houthis have now become even stronger than they used to be. They can take down the largest oil refinery in the world (Aramco) in the southern East of Saudi Arabia in a matter of seconds and send the European countries economy into recession and the US into deep trouble or perhaps block the Bab-el-Mandeb strait which is even more important than Strait of Hormuz since it connects the west and east, literally!

Indeed, a couple of days after Qassem Soleimnai warned Trump after Trump’s tweet, Houthis destroyed the most expensive Saudi naval destroyer in Bab-el-Mandeb with Iranian anti-ship Ballistic missiles and also targeted a large Saudi oil tanker that was passing the strait. This didn’t get into news much, but the situation was extremely tense since Iranian commanders took Trump full cap tweet personal and perhaps even serious.

Underground sources, reported that Iranian submarines were lined-up very close to Yemenis coast and the strategic port of Hodeidah, were Saudi-lead coalitions were trying to seize at that time. The reaction by the Saudi and the US army was so calm with regards to Iran approach that proved to Iranian the threat of war by Trump was not something leaders say before starting a war and that’s how the strait of Bab-el-Mandeb was reopened!

Do you know how much leverage these provide?!

For Iran, these matters mean the defeat of the US not the actual occupying.


**Iran doesn’t have as much influence in Afghanistan after Taliban massacred over dozen Iranian diplomats before the US invasion, but still Iran has much more influence (especially intelligence) in Afghanistan than the US, because Iran at least got many friends and followers amongst the Shia and Persian backgrounds in Afghanistan where majority of people speak Persian like the Iranians, but the US is hated by all due to the invasion and years of bombardments.**

Will Trump issue more waivers on Iran oil sanctions after the threat from Riyadh?

Certainly not officially, but the US is seriously considering waivers on Iranian oil sanctions.

This even more likely now that war of words of started between Trump and Saudi officials because of oil prices and the murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey.

A couple of days ago, Trump said he might put sanctions on Saudi Arabia if the allegation of Saudi involvement in the murder Mr Khashoggi was true.

Now today, Mohammed Bin Salman, the crown prince, has hit back and said, if the US imposes a sanction on his country, he will increase the price of oil to up to 200 dollars per barrel.

All these means that Trump cannot rely on Saudi Arabia to fill the market after the loss of Iranian oil, and indeed the very opposite is happening, therefore it is more likely that more waivers are issued to keep some Iranian oil in the market, for now, this year at least!

Also, I don’t see how the crown prince can have a normal relation with Trump after this threat against Washington with regards to increasing oil prices! Trump likely to have taken to this personally.

What If Iran Is hiding Its Nuclear Weapons In The Fear of Global Condemnation And Embargo?

What Israel and the US are really concern with regards to Iran’s nuclear program is if one day Iran becomes a fully Nuclear Capable State and not really if they (Iran) posses a number of nuclear warheads although they would certainly wouldn’t like that either since the the real reason for the US and Israel dissension is not the nuclear threat but the very core of Iranian political philosophy that has been in practice since 1979).

A fully nuclear capable state means a country that has master the extensive uranium enrichment (over 90%), able to extract uranium, knows the know-how of how to make nuclear warheads (which means they have tested their nuclear warheads several times) and of course have the means to deliver the warheads (masters the ICBM).

Doing all these, especially testing nuclear weapons, which is 100% unavoidable and necessary are almost impossible to hide for any country today, especially for Iran which is being closely monitored 24/7 by satellites and of course by thousands of agents and spies that are sent to Iran regularly (espionage warfare on Iran is too damn tense and it only seems to be getting worse).

So Iran is well-aware that it cannot hide testing nuclear weapons, especially ever since 2015 that IAEA inspectors are all over the country. It’s just the worst decision they could make and that’s why they have not done it so (for example, any nuclear underground testing, would make earthquakes with uniques type of Seismic wave that paleoseismologist can easily detect, simply impossible to hide).

Iran wanted to improve its impression in the international community and break the international alliance that Obama managed to create against it. Thus they would never make another secret program after they signed the deal as doing so could make their impression much worse than before. Iran’s intention was to faithfully comply with the deal. And they did so.

According to president Trump and secretory of state Pompeo, the US will reimpose sanctions (which also include the embargo on oil fields or let’s say any other deal that Iran could make with foreign companies in any field including medicine and medications) regardless of Iran’s total commitment to the terms of the nuclear deal, also known as JCPOA.

So when you asked whether Iran is hiding any of its nukes in the fear of US sanctions, you should remember the US and (probably) soon the Europe union (or let’s say the west) are already boycotting Iran’s oil industry but not because they found out of Iran’s secret nukes but solely because they want to move in the path that is more likely to ends-up with a war with Iran and not the path that might lead to peace or a more internationally recognised Iran.

P.s even if one day Iran totally gives up its nuclear program ( no enrichment) plus missiles, the US would never leave Iran. They would make up another reason to crush Iran.

 

How Can A Nuclear Iran Indeed be Good Thing For Its enemies?!

Israel (Netanyahu) presents to the world that they are really frightened by an Iran that has nuclear weapons because Iran is some crazy and irrational state that will target Israel as soon as they make their first nuclear weapon. But in fact, although nuclear weapons would give a great advantage to Iran in some degree (short-term), it also means Iran has entered a very dangerous game where they really have no power in comparison to their advisories (the US) with respect to nuclear weapon technology.

If Iran possess nukes, the US and Israel are much more free to completely destroy Iran (with nukes) perhaps by spreading false stories like, “Iran fired nukes toward the USA, first, but we managed to target their missile in space while they failed to stop our retaliation.” They would even get cheers by their people if they work on their story-line well enough.

(Was a Nuclear Missile Attack on Hawaii Thwarted by a Secret Space Program?)

why Israel has numerously, specifically, declared ISIS as not being a threat even though one could think of ISIS to soon become even worse than Iran (in Israeli perspective) ?!

(David Duke on Twitter )

ISIS was too stupid and evil that almost seemed as if they wanted be hated by the globe. No one liked ISIS. The entire of the world with little exception dearly hated ISIS. Is it too crazy to say Israel would have loved ISIS to expand and take the control of Iraq and Syria (at least) because only then, the US Army, NATO and IDF have had once again a legitimate reason to attack the middle east like how the US did after the 9/11.

Imagine ISIS was in control of the entire of Iraq and Syria, and horrendous terrorist attacks were committed almost daily in Europe and the US along with the frightening videos of beheadings being released by ISIS.

(Videomaterial erhalten: IS-Hinrichtungen im Studio gefilmt )

These all would result in some sort of meeting in the UN to plan a massive attack that could stop this evil named ISIS. Eventually the US-lead coalition would have had launched a brutal attack and massacre most people of these countries (this time with international consent) under the pretext of defeating “the evil ISIS” and maybe even the use of few nuclear warheads. All these would have given Israel the legitimacy to expand their occupation (totally crush the Gaza Strip) and perhaps become Iran’s new neighbour!

ISIS was the best thing that ever happened for Israel ever since the 9/11 if you think about it!

(“Greater Israel”: The Zionist Plan For The Middle East | The Sleuth Journal )

I gave the ISIS example so you would know the type of logic that could be applied; if Iran today was to becomes a nuclear state, it is very likely that Israel would make their regional players like Saudi Arabia, a nuclear state in order to manipulate Iran or perhaps both of them in some sort of nuclear stand-off that could end-up both getting destroyed or significantly weakened.