Why reconciliation between states like Iran and Israel is unlikely to take place?

One side has to retreat much more than other the side for reconciliation in such a level to take place.

Usually, countries make such reconciliation if one side is clearly on the back foot. Either in a post-war time when one side has already been defeated (e.g., Nazis after WWII, Japanese after WWII or Germany after WWI) or it is in an even a worse situation than post-war as the result of other means of warlike sanctions thus have no choice but to reconcile (reconciliation from the point of weakness) with their enemy.

Human beings have shown to do not reconcile in such matters. Well, they do reconcile but mostly when they are kids in their play; it is very uncommon at international relation level for hostile countries to make any reconciliation. Once a nation perused a long-term fundamental policy, it becomes really challenging and even impossible to make any reconciliation. For example, Russia and the US were, are and will be forever enemies; the US wants to control Russia and Russia wants to bring the US down and climb up itself. Unfortunately, these policies are natural because they are rooted from the nature of human beings and how they view power and its relation to survival, which, counts as the most important thing in the human mind.

Series of historical events prior to 1979 had made the Iranian nation very sceptical and deceitful to the west (at that time), which lead to the 1979 Islamic revolution. Khomeini was a leader. He got millions of supporters by acknowledging everything that Iranian hated about Shah and also introduced his view of political Shi’ism to the revolution (Shi’ism is one of two branches of Islam practised mainly in Iran)The issue of Palestine was the most important aspect of his political ideology, in term of the foreign policy.

(Iranian policy toward Israel has also to do with the fact that Iranian are the minority in the Islamic world and their region)

Ever since then, Iran has made the decision to oppose Israel. And they have invested and sacrificed to the extent that they cannot really go back. As long as nothing fundamentally changes, Iran will oppose Israel. Israel will also oppose all countries that are as large as Iraq.

Iran and its regional allies along with Russia have just passed through the hardest period of wars in Syria (Jihadists, the emerge of ISIS and regime change) and Iraq (ISIS) successfully, despite all odds. There is no reason for Iran to make any meaningful reconciliation with Israel. And like always. Israel is not considering such matters.

In Iranian perspective, in the best-case scenario, just like the post-Afghanistan invasion when Iran and west held serious talks about nuclear and other issues, I assume Iran would be willing to fully seize its nuclear enrichment (perhaps for 10 years) and make Hezbollah less militaristic In return for giving Palestinian the rights to VOTE and have their own state (two-state solution) and the ease of sanction. But Israel (the US) rejected the best scenario at that time and I think they will do the same now even though Iran is very unlikely to make that much of reconciliation that it did when it had US troops on its borders occupying one country after another.

QuickRead- Are Iran And Israel Friends Behind the Scenes?

Some Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE are the ones who try to spread this propaganda.

The reason why they do this is that they don’t want their people to somehow support Iran because Iran is the only country that is standing up to Israel with regards to the Palestinian issue.

The idea of being “Secretly Friend” is something that intelligence agencies like the KGB and Mossad like to use. For example, Hamas was created by Mossad at first, so that Hamas could be something like ISIS that could justify IDF policy to crush the Palestinian; just like no one has empathy toward ISIS, they wanted to create the same with Hamas in Palestine.

If Iran was secretly friend with Israel, then that should have been for the purpose of making Israel win and not experience their first ever defeat with Hezbollah.

If Iran was secretly friend with Israel, then Iran should have allowed Assad to fall and Syria gets divided and not the other way around and the same applies for Kurdish referendum in Iraq which could have resulted in Iraq getting divided into three states which would greatly benefit Israel if it was not for Iran.

And again, if Iran was secretly friend with Israel then they shouldn’t have put quite a much of resources to create a local coalition in Iraq and Syria that could defeat ISIS. Indeed the opposite, if Iran was secretly friend with Israel then they should have allowed ISIS to take over Iraq and Syria that resulted in a global hatred and horror for ISIS and Muslim (much greater than the current Islamophobia) which would have legitimised a broad bloody invasion of these countries by NATO and even Israel, which, ultimately, would have greatly served Israel by allowing it to expand and suppress Palestinian while not getting global condemnation.

So, I don’t think Iran and Israel are secretly friends as Israel is doing its best to topple the Iranian government

QuickRead- How The Iranian backed-Hezbollah defeated Israel?

Hezbollah won against Israel since Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon.

Underestimation

The primary reason why Hezbollah won is that Israel underestimated Hezbollah capabilities so idiotically much!

Missile and rocket strategy

Hezbollah rocket and missile firing strategy also really surprises Israel. Israel felt helpless against those Hezbollah rockets, especially when they successfully hit the train station in Haifa. Israel could not continue having its main cities being in that level of horror ( as this would threaten its existence)

Competency of Hezbollah fighters

Hezbollah fighters were so well trained that even the most elite units of Golani and Paratroopers Brigade could not dominate them. In the last days of July, if I’m not wrong, IDF was deploying their best ground forces but not only that they all failed, Hezbollah did not seem to be seriously hurt as the result. This was an awful psychological defeat for the IDF officers. The techniques that Hezbollah fighters used were so well thought and planned, a class of its own and the best asymmetric warfare that could challenge any army in the world. The anti-tank missile that Hezbollah used also proven to be extremely effective against IDF Merkava tanks, while IDF thought Merkava tanks are almost invisible and impossible to be defeated.

Israel, perhaps, had forgotten who is behind Hezbollah!

Does Israel have enough capabilities to confront Iran alone?

There is a reason why Israel is so dependent on the US support. Israel, alone, could have never occupied the land that they have since 50s. In order for Israel to maintain their occupation, they need the constant support of the US, especially in term militarily. All the game-ganger capabilities that Israel now has (F35, Iron Dome etc) is completely because of the US money and resources.

(Source: A Conservative Estimate of Total U.S. Direct Aid to Israel: Almost $138 Billion – WRMEA)

(Source: The Costs to American Taxpayers of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: $3 Trillion – WRMEA)

Israel is a good striker, they can land the perfect first punch and they do all they can that that punch knocks-out their opponent. Their weakness comes when their opponent sustained that first hit and starts to fight back as Israel although is the perfect striker but can get exhausted very quickly. Israel, alone, cannot confront Iran, because Iran strength is staying up on their feet and the never-ending cycle of attacks, they can endure long war, they are the survivor. Their strength comes after their opponent attacks them.

Israel knows better than anyone they cannot confront Iran by themselves. If they could have, then they would have done so just like they confronted Syria and Iraq.

In summary, Israel has enough capabilities to seriously hurt Iran but they have a lot more to lose than Iran and quite frankly, much more vulnerable in a strategic and political sense. Any real conflict between Iran and Israel in which Iran shows competency in the fighting, like targeting Tel Aviv and Haifa, would bring a massive support for Iran from Sunni Muslims in the region and that is the nightmare of IDF; a united Muslim population with one goal in mind, defeating Israel.

What If Iran Is hiding Its Nuclear Weapons In The Fear of Global Condemnation And Embargo?

What Israel and the US are really concern with regards to Iran’s nuclear program is if one day Iran becomes a fully Nuclear Capable State and not really if they (Iran) posses a number of nuclear warheads although they would certainly wouldn’t like that either since the the real reason for the US and Israel dissension is not the nuclear threat but the very core of Iranian political philosophy that has been in practice since 1979).

A fully nuclear capable state means a country that has master the extensive uranium enrichment (over 90%), able to extract uranium, knows the know-how of how to make nuclear warheads (which means they have tested their nuclear warheads several times) and of course have the means to deliver the warheads (masters the ICBM).

Doing all these, especially testing nuclear weapons, which is 100% unavoidable and necessary are almost impossible to hide for any country today, especially for Iran which is being closely monitored 24/7 by satellites and of course by thousands of agents and spies that are sent to Iran regularly (espionage warfare on Iran is too damn tense and it only seems to be getting worse).

So Iran is well-aware that it cannot hide testing nuclear weapons, especially ever since 2015 that IAEA inspectors are all over the country. It’s just the worst decision they could make and that’s why they have not done it so (for example, any nuclear underground testing, would make earthquakes with uniques type of Seismic wave that paleoseismologist can easily detect, simply impossible to hide).

Iran wanted to improve its impression in the international community and break the international alliance that Obama managed to create against it. Thus they would never make another secret program after they signed the deal as doing so could make their impression much worse than before. Iran’s intention was to faithfully comply with the deal. And they did so.

According to president Trump and secretory of state Pompeo, the US will reimpose sanctions (which also include the embargo on oil fields or let’s say any other deal that Iran could make with foreign companies in any field including medicine and medications) regardless of Iran’s total commitment to the terms of the nuclear deal, also known as JCPOA.

So when you asked whether Iran is hiding any of its nukes in the fear of US sanctions, you should remember the US and (probably) soon the Europe union (or let’s say the west) are already boycotting Iran’s oil industry but not because they found out of Iran’s secret nukes but solely because they want to move in the path that is more likely to ends-up with a war with Iran and not the path that might lead to peace or a more internationally recognised Iran.

P.s even if one day Iran totally gives up its nuclear program ( no enrichment) plus missiles, the US would never leave Iran. They would make up another reason to crush Iran.

 

How Can A Nuclear Iran Indeed be Good Thing For Its enemies?!

Israel (Netanyahu) presents to the world that they are really frightened by an Iran that has nuclear weapons because Iran is some crazy and irrational state that will target Israel as soon as they make their first nuclear weapon. But in fact, although nuclear weapons would give a great advantage to Iran in some degree (short-term), it also means Iran has entered a very dangerous game where they really have no power in comparison to their advisories (the US) with respect to nuclear weapon technology.

If Iran possess nukes, the US and Israel are much more free to completely destroy Iran (with nukes) perhaps by spreading false stories like, “Iran fired nukes toward the USA, first, but we managed to target their missile in space while they failed to stop our retaliation.” They would even get cheers by their people if they work on their story-line well enough.

(Was a Nuclear Missile Attack on Hawaii Thwarted by a Secret Space Program?)

why Israel has numerously, specifically, declared ISIS as not being a threat even though one could think of ISIS to soon become even worse than Iran (in Israeli perspective) ?!

(David Duke on Twitter )

ISIS was too stupid and evil that almost seemed as if they wanted be hated by the globe. No one liked ISIS. The entire of the world with little exception dearly hated ISIS. Is it too crazy to say Israel would have loved ISIS to expand and take the control of Iraq and Syria (at least) because only then, the US Army, NATO and IDF have had once again a legitimate reason to attack the middle east like how the US did after the 9/11.

Imagine ISIS was in control of the entire of Iraq and Syria, and horrendous terrorist attacks were committed almost daily in Europe and the US along with the frightening videos of beheadings being released by ISIS.

(Videomaterial erhalten: IS-Hinrichtungen im Studio gefilmt )

These all would result in some sort of meeting in the UN to plan a massive attack that could stop this evil named ISIS. Eventually the US-lead coalition would have had launched a brutal attack and massacre most people of these countries (this time with international consent) under the pretext of defeating “the evil ISIS” and maybe even the use of few nuclear warheads. All these would have given Israel the legitimacy to expand their occupation (totally crush the Gaza Strip) and perhaps become Iran’s new neighbour!

ISIS was the best thing that ever happened for Israel ever since the 9/11 if you think about it!

(“Greater Israel”: The Zionist Plan For The Middle East | The Sleuth Journal )

I gave the ISIS example so you would know the type of logic that could be applied; if Iran today was to becomes a nuclear state, it is very likely that Israel would make their regional players like Saudi Arabia, a nuclear state in order to manipulate Iran or perhaps both of them in some sort of nuclear stand-off that could end-up both getting destroyed or significantly weakened.