Is It All Because of Iran aggressiveness Or Our Arrogance?

Iran is not aggressive but being independent and free (in term of foreign policy making) is usually perceived by few who fear the rise of a competitor as being “aggressive”.

https://youtu.be/lm03YaqYxUA

(Mohammad Javad Zarif, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, responded to US warnings to sink Iranian speedboats)

Every action that various countries have taken in western Asia obviously has produced some reactions by the states located in that region.

>> The absurd approach of forcing the creation of the state of Israel literally changed the fate entire of the region and world. The 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran was massively influenced by the conflict between Palestine and Israel. IN my opinion, if it wasn’t for the issue of Palestine, Khomeini wouldn’t have had enough determination and enthusiasm to become the leader of the revolution.

>> All the blood and controversies of the 1979 revolution in Iran rooted in the US, the British and the Soviets rootless policies since the WWI with respect to Iran.

On Missile

But these days Iran is accused of being aggressive only because it has resisted foreign countries attacks. it is quite remarkable to my eyes when the US and its allies call Iran aggressive for developing missile technology as the only means of its defence while at the same time selling hundreds of billions worth of state of the art missile to Iran neighbours! This doesn’t make sense anywhere in the globe. India made nukes because China got nukes, and Pakistan got nukes because India got nukes. This is how it works. Everywhere. For example, NATO violated the treaty and installed many Air Defence System batteries surrounding Russia (taking away their strike capability) and Russia in return made Supersonic cruise missile that can bypass those air defences easily. Therefore, if the US help Israel by money and resources to build whatever kind of weapons (F35, iron dome, Tanks Nuclear Bombs Uranium etc) that they need or sells hundreds of billion dollars military equipment to Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states countries, then we all should expect the most influential country (arguably) in that region to get worried and feels the need to acquire some form of deterrence to avoid being inavded like in 1980 by US/Soviet/EU backed Saddam.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yweu-sOGQGw

(Javad Zarif gave the most precise and concise answer with regards to the missile)

Afghanistan and Iraq

When the US decided to occupy two of Iran neighbouring countries, Iran offers help to avoid what everyone had in mind (US war with Iran). The US accepted Iran help in toppling Taliban in Afghanistan and that is why the primary operation went very smooth but when it came to Iraq, Bush rejected Iran offer and instead called Iran axis of evil. In other words, Iran thought they might be next soon or later if the US forces remain in Iraq in mass. Many in the US main think-tank like Hudson institute hate Iran for helping Iraqi militias push the US occupying forces out of their country, which means the some in the US are angry on why you fought back when we popped all over your country and dropped some more uranium depleted bombs on your children as a memorial! This is really unbelievable the level of arrogance!

ISIS

They themselves replaced the Suni Saddam who was a CIA stooge, with a new system that happened to be run by the Shia prime minister after the elections! Then under the US supervision, ISIS is created and kept growing but they somehow dare to accuse Iran once again for that!

Why Iran somehow was in Iraq?!

As ISIS, advanced 30 km to Iranians border and the US simply rejected an emergency call for help from the Iraqi government on ISIS offensives to Baghdad and Erbil, Iran received two calls one from Kurdish authorities and one from Baghdad, demanding immediate support and Iran without saying anything further deployed heavy military equipment plus several hundred special forces in one night which repelled the ISIS offensives. Is it Iran being aggressive here?!

Syria

The only reason why Iran has some presence in Syria is due to the fact that the US and its allies created a Jihadist production factory in that country.

>> US/ allies made a systematic effort to find every psychopath, criminal and terrorists from all over the globe (Chechnya, southern Russia, eastern Asia, Saudi Arabia etc) and deployed them to Syria from the northern border with Turkey where Erdogan-ISIS dirty oil trade was going on and from southern Syria, through Jordan and also from the Israel occupying Golan Heights. Iran with so much suffering managed to keep them in line until Russia provided airpower to stop that cancer before it was too late! They did everyone a favour, especially the European!

Iran is not aggressive, in fact, Iran has been entirely pretty defensive but effective and firm on its moves (because it’s defensive simply wanting to survive) whereas other parties just made reckless policies as if its a game, because it is a game for them when you’re defending your existence, your entire being, you’re more likely to be effective and determined, whereas imperial kind of policies are superfluous and lack determination.

Ebrahim Raisi As The Future Supreme Leader Of Iran

There are three possible candidates, Ebrahim Raisi (kind of close to IRGC and the House of leadership, Hassan Rouhani (affiliated with Hashemi’s family and reformist party) and Sadegh Larijani (the head of the Larijani’s family).

Ebrahim Raisi

(The image shows Ebrahim Raisi, the head of Astan Quds Razavi and a member of Assembly of Experts)

Ebrahim Raisi seems to be the candidate of choice ( presidency and leadership) for both IRGC and The House of leadership. In 2017 presidential election in Iran he lost to Rouhani but managed to get more than 900k votes in Tehran (!) and more than 15 million votes in total, which is not bad at all considering Iran had no president that runs only one term.

Here is why I think Raisi is the one even though he has not been involved in any significant political position, like Khamenei….

(The Image Above shows Ebrahim Raisi in Lebanese border with Israel)

One event made many really convinced, that Ebrahim Raisi would be the future supreme leader and that event is when Ebrahim Raisi visited Syria and Lebanon (at the end of January 2018) and met with many very high ranking Hezbollah commanders and religious figures (Sunni and Shia) near the Israeli -Lebonan border… in the politics of Shia Islam, this is called Oath of allegiance or [بیعت] in Farsi. He was sent there (probably by the supreme leader request) to ensure Iranian allies that he will be the real commander in chief in the future in Iran so to avoid any confusion.

(The image above is Ebrahim Raisi either in Lebonan or Syria but most likely Lebonan)

I think this event alone, proves that Ebrahim Raisi, in fact, will be the future leader in Iran. There might be a joined- attempts by others to grab this position but it is very unlikely that they can handle IRGC in any sustainable approach.

2) Hassan Rouhani

(The image above shows president Hassan Rouhani)

What they (IRGC + Leadership) are now having in mind is how to prevent the political party that is connected to Hashemi family to have any say in the future, because, this party has time and time again sent signals that pointed their rejection to some of the main ideas of the 1979 revolution ( Hashemi family means the entire of Rouhanis’s cabinet, all the reformists and some portion of the ministry of intelligence). This party and candidate has some advantages to all the other candidates and that is his popularity amongst the younger generation.

3) Sadegh Larijani

(The image above shows Sadegh Larijani)

Both IRGC and house of leadership but more IRGC don’t trust the Larijani’s family, who are in charge of parliament, the head of the judiciary, Chairman of Expediency Discernment Council and a member of the assembly of experts. But he (Sadegh Larijani) is a tough one to cross-over since he has all the requirements on paper to become the supreme leader. However, he is extremely unpopular amongst the people and IRGC in particular!

I’m kinda sure they don’t allow Larijani or Rouhani to become the future supreme leader because the pro-Islamic revolutionaries (by that I mean the ordinary people who strongly support the current supreme leader) will not be loyal to either of them. larijani is deeply hated by Ahmadinejad followers (who are also loyal to the supreme leader) and Rouhani is known as in the most critical terms you could find amongst the pro-revolutionaries.

I think Raisi’s last year visit to Syria and Lebonan proves that he, in fact, will be the future leader in Iran. There might be a joined- attempts by others to grab this position but it is very unlikely that they can handle IRGC in any sustainable way.


*Please have in mind, these are all just opinions and interpretations based on my grasp of news and events, certainly, I do not claim to know the absolute truth. These may very well be all untrue and inaccurate!*

Lesson From History: What Caused The 1979 Islamic Revolution In Iran?

Often series of events that involves major injustices lead to things like revolution or a rise of a man like Hitler.

It is important to know what events caused the Iranian society to rise up against Shah and his western supporters.

In WW1 Iran was occupied in an aggressive move by the British and the soviet, which lead to the genocide or ”Persian famine of 1917–1919” instated by the British which resulted in the death of several million Iranians! Have in mind, this famine could have been easily avoided if it was not systematically planned.

In WW2, Iran was again occupied for nothing more than pure aggression and its leader at the time Reza shah was removed by force and his son who was loyal to the west was installed. 10 years after that, CIA again largely intervened in Iranian domestic affairs and thus their natural sociable evolution to nationalize their oil industry by organizing a coup to topple the leader of that movement. After that coup, people had become very frustrated and painfully helpless. They were quite ready for an uprising as they still had a fresh memory of western interference and Shah loyalty to them.

One of other reason why people wanted an anti-west leader was the fact that west had betrayed Reza Shah during the WW1 in the most despicable manner, which showed to people even if you be friend with the west, they are still going to stab you, not in the back but right on your stomach as you are watching.

All this bad consciousness in the society resulted in the Islamic revolution in which a man like Khomeini said all the things that were in people’s hearts and more important than anything promised to bring self-determination.