QuickRead- What is a main goal of Iran’s market reform plans?

There is no market reform plan, It’s rather the control over the market.

The real economic reform that the Iranian government is pursuing is the reform of the entire of the banking system of the country. In this plan, they will have to close-down many banks I believe except the main few central banks and this is gonna make lots of noise which is why they are cautious is starting this plan. Another goal of this reform is to stop or at least decrease the interest rate considerably.

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Iran’s Banking Reform Prospects Look Brighter

But, considering the recent events, “market reform” could be interpreted as the use of force (such as capital punishment) to prevent certain super-wealthy individuals and groups to manipulate the market for their own benefit.

So far, I should say they have been quite successful since the market is kind of stable even when the last round of sanctions was reimposed on 6 November. They are engineering the market so that it would never experience another huge decline. And when the effects of sanctions are too large to stop, they make sure these effects hit the market one at a time and not all at once that could cause protests and public outrage. They even managed to decrease the price of the dollar and increase the value of the national currency.

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‘Sultan of Coins’ executed in Iran

QuickRead- Considering The Case Of Nazanin Zaghari, Is Iran Safe For Tourists?

Iran is amongst the safest country in the world, next to western European countries.

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These are the most dangerous countries to travel to in 2019

Tourists cannot be any more welcomed and loved anywhere else than Iran.

Just search in YouTube for “Vlog Iran” then you would see many personal vlogs of tourists that show their love for the country and how they were treated with respect. Iran is one of those countries that tourists are more likely to get pressure to get free things like food than being pressured to buy stuff.

Thousands of tourists have gone to Iran since 2015 and none of them had any issue.

The cases like the Nazanin Zaghari (an Iranian born woman) are very different. She did not go back to Iran because she wanted to visit, she came back for espionage activities and to teach the techniques to create propaganda, which would be used to topple the central government.

Unless you have anything else in mind than simply visiting an ancient land full of surprises, there is nothing to worry about.

QuickRead- Are Iran And Israel Friends Behind the Scenes?

Some Arab countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE are the ones who try to spread this propaganda.

The reason why they do this is that they don’t want their people to somehow support Iran because Iran is the only country that is standing up to Israel with regards to the Palestinian issue.

The idea of being “Secretly Friend” is something that intelligence agencies like the KGB and Mossad like to use. For example, Hamas was created by Mossad at first, so that Hamas could be something like ISIS that could justify IDF policy to crush the Palestinian; just like no one has empathy toward ISIS, they wanted to create the same with Hamas in Palestine.

If Iran was secretly friend with Israel, then that should have been for the purpose of making Israel win and not experience their first ever defeat with Hezbollah.

If Iran was secretly friend with Israel, then Iran should have allowed Assad to fall and Syria gets divided and not the other way around and the same applies for Kurdish referendum in Iraq which could have resulted in Iraq getting divided into three states which would greatly benefit Israel if it was not for Iran.

And again, if Iran was secretly friend with Israel then they shouldn’t have put quite a much of resources to create a local coalition in Iraq and Syria that could defeat ISIS. Indeed the opposite, if Iran was secretly friend with Israel then they should have allowed ISIS to take over Iraq and Syria that resulted in a global hatred and horror for ISIS and Muslim (much greater than the current Islamophobia) which would have legitimised a broad bloody invasion of these countries by NATO and even Israel, which, ultimately, would have greatly served Israel by allowing it to expand and suppress Palestinian while not getting global condemnation.

So, I don’t think Iran and Israel are secretly friends as Israel is doing its best to topple the Iranian government

QuickRead- Will Pakistan Ever Allow The US to Use Its Soil To Attack Iran?

No, they would never do that, especially with Imran Khan being in power. Pakistan has actually got into some troubles with the US (Trump) since last year which led to the US sanctioning Pakistan. Iran and Pakistan have recently been developing quite a deep relationship indeed.

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Around 4 years ago when the topic of the airstrike on Iranian nuclear sites was very hot, Turkey, a NATO member, announced they will not allow their soil as a base for any sort of attack on Iran. They said the same about the Iraq invasion, actually.

Unfortunately, the only country that would allow this to happen is Saudi Arabia and other smaller Persian Gulf states, but mainly Saudi Arabia.

Pakistan will remain more and less neutral but let’s be sure, many Shia from Pakistan will be willing to fight but in an off-the-record manner.

The Source for the first Screenshot: U.S. Relations with Pakistan Hit Rock Bottom With Trump’s Tweets

QuickRead- How The Iranian backed-Hezbollah defeated Israel?

Hezbollah won against Israel since Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon.

Underestimation

The primary reason why Hezbollah won is that Israel underestimated Hezbollah capabilities so idiotically much!

Missile and rocket strategy

Hezbollah rocket and missile firing strategy also really surprises Israel. Israel felt helpless against those Hezbollah rockets, especially when they successfully hit the train station in Haifa. Israel could not continue having its main cities being in that level of horror ( as this would threaten its existence)

Competency of Hezbollah fighters

Hezbollah fighters were so well trained that even the most elite units of Golani and Paratroopers Brigade could not dominate them. In the last days of July, if I’m not wrong, IDF was deploying their best ground forces but not only that they all failed, Hezbollah did not seem to be seriously hurt as the result. This was an awful psychological defeat for the IDF officers. The techniques that Hezbollah fighters used were so well thought and planned, a class of its own and the best asymmetric warfare that could challenge any army in the world. The anti-tank missile that Hezbollah used also proven to be extremely effective against IDF Merkava tanks, while IDF thought Merkava tanks are almost invisible and impossible to be defeated.

Israel, perhaps, had forgotten who is behind Hezbollah!

Will Trump order the strike on Iranian nuclear sites if Iran resumes its nuclear activities?

George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for whatever reasons, did not attack Iranian nuclear sites.

George W. Bush and Iran

During Bush presidency, the US had over 250 K troops plus thousands of logistics surrounding Iran when International atomic energy agency (IAEA) found out about Natanz and Fordow nuclear sites, which were located deep in the mountains. Also, once Bush rejected Iran’s offer to fully halt its enrichment by calling Iran the axis of evil, Iran also rejected IAEA inspectors. One would say, things could not be any better for the US to attack Iran. Despite all that, the US and Israel did not attack Iran.Barack Obama and Iran

Barack Obama and Iran

When Obama was in office, Iran was preoccupied in Syria and was dealing with sanctions for the first time to that level. The US had plenty of time to attack Iran at the first round of Obama presidency but they still didn’t although they knew Iran was improving significantly in making advance centrifuges. That was the last good chance for the US to strike Iran, but they did not attack Iran even though Iran had enough enriched uranium to make at least 8 nuclear bombs according to Javad Zarif in an interview with Charlie Rose in 2015.

Now in 2018, the geopolitics of the middle east is different. Iran has huge influence throughout the middle east and beyond. It is no longer Iran that is surrounded by the US and its allies but rather Iran and its friends that have surrounded the US and its allies. The US and its allies are very vulnerable to Iran. If the US did not attack Iran then, it is very hard to imagine that they attack Iran now. Iran also has something that they almost never had and that is international support. This means It’s very hard for the US to create a coalition against Iran in the case of Iraq-like invasion.

On the military point of view

The US military strategists can plan the attack on nuclear sites fairly easily considering the capabilities of US air-force. But the real issue that they worry is their next move when Iran targeted their forces throughout the region with their ballistic missiles, which some of them has shown to have 100% accuracy or when hundreds of their troops were prisoned in Iraq and etc. Is the US ready to organise 250k troops to wage a full-scale war on Iran?! Is Trump ready to destroy his presidency by waging another unnecessary war in the middle east?!

A sensible mind would see these points, but the current US administration has not really acted based on logic and reasons and this is why some analysts fear that if Iran resumes its nuclear activities like before it is highly likely that Trump would start a war. However, to call the current administration of the US simply unreasonable to make a specific assumption that could predict the future is unwise. Waging a war is a very different kind of unreasonableness than exiting the nuclear deal or not believing on global warming. To start a war on Iran means the US has to spend an enormous amount of resources, it means a damage to the economy, something that Trump as a businessman is really trying to avoid. Trump doesn’t even want the troops to stay in Syria and wants them back. Trump has always complained about the meaningless wars in the middle east.

In a perfect conversation between Trump and Pentagon regarding the attack on Iran nuclear sites, Trump is very unlikely to order the strike in my opinion since Pentagon has shown to be quite sincere by not letting politics to get involved in their work. The only way, the US and Iran might collide is if “USS Liberty incident” repeats in one form or another. This scenario, unfortunately, is quite likely since people like John Bolton, Rudy Giuliani and Mike Pompeo are the ears of the President.

Iran has not made any effort to avoid the restriction it accepted under the joint comprehensive plan of action or JCPOA, unlike the common belief. Although the predominant explanation implies that the EU is the reason why Iran has stayed in the deal, it is fair to think that the “USS liberty incident type scenario” and other types of miscalculations is partly why the Iranian government has not rushed into enriching uranium like before the deal was signed.

Are The Secondary Sanctions On Iran a Good Idea?

In order to determine whether it’s a good idea or not, we have to see whether it helps to achieve the goals of US and its allies.

The ultimate goal of the US and its allies is to simply topple the Iranian establishment in the way that Iran wouldn’t be able to come back at the international scene anytime soon. Many people say it’s also to restrain Iran from expanding its influence throughout the region and beyond.

Sanctions are not going to bring down the establishment simply because they are ineffective. They are ineffective because number of countries like China, Russia, Turkey and India are not going to abide by the set of rules that the US unilateral issued, also, because Iran is not the type of country that could be defeated by only sanctions what this means is that Iran is an independent state that can provide many of its essential needs like food and medicine. These type of sanctions will work on smaller countries that can be squeezed not Iran and definitely not Russia or China.

But why is that a bad Idea especially in the case of Iran? What the US feared the most about Iran is called Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps or IRGC. IRGC was one of the main element that was responsible to pass through the 2012-2015 Obama sanctions by finding alternative ways. Now guess what, IRGC gets more experience and finds more connections globally when they’re ordered to find ways around sanctions, they become more powerful by having more responsibilities. So this is a classic example of unintended consequences or blowbacks in politics and international relation.

Soviet Union collapsed not because of economic hardship (although it had its effect) but when Soviet Union last leader Mikhail Gorbachev thought west was his friend and officially invited its enemy to his house. Pretending to be the friend of Iran is the most effective way to topple their establishment. So, the Iran deal was not achieved because Obama loved Iran but because he thought this strategy is more likely to work than others.